Monday, February 27, 2024

SECNAV Search Continues

The United States Naval Institute News service was the first to report that President Trump would appoint financier Philip Bilden to be nominated for Secretary of the Navy. USNI News was among the last to report Philip Bilden would drop out.
Financier Philip Bilden has withdrawn himself from consideration to be the next Secretary of the Navy, he said in a Sunday statement.

In the statement, Bilden said he would be unable to meet the requirements of the Office of Government Ethics requirements for the position without “materially adverse divestment” of his family’s financial interests.

“I fully support the President’s agenda and the [Secretary of Defense James Mattis’] leadership to modernize and rebuild our Navy and Marine Corps, and I will continue to support their efforts outside of the Department of the Navy,” he said in the statement.
“However, after an extensive review process, I have determined that I will not be able to satisfy the Office of Government Ethics requirements without undue disruption and materially adverse divestment of my family’s private financial interests.”

In a Sunday statement, Mattis said the withdrawal “was a personal decision driven by privacy concerns and significant challenges he faced in separating himself from his business interests. While I am disappointed, I understand and his respect his decision, and know that he will continue to support our nation in other ways.”

Mattis also said, “in the coming days I will make a recommendation to President Trump for a leader who can guide our Navy and Marine Corps team as we execute the president’s vision to rebuild our military.”
Thanks to Major Garrett's twitter account, this wasn't exactly unexpected news. Basically, that was the moment the financial conflict of interest was discovered and it was only a matter of time before he withdrew his name from the nomination. Political activists, both on social media and the media, may try to make this into something it isn't, but the bottom line is that it was going to be very difficult for Mr. Bilden to divest himself from the wealth the gentleman had accumulated over his career in International Finance in order to meet the government ethics requirements related to financial conflict of interest.

Having personally run into similar ethical requirements related to financial interests and working for government, it's very hard for me to see this as a big deal. Someone like me who had a few thousand dollars invested in activities that created an ethical financial conflict has nothing in common with someone like Philip Bilden who likely had millions of dollars to deal with. Most people who comment on this stuff have never actually dealt with the issue.

In the end Philip Bilden's nomination and subsequent withdrawal has everything to do with the process working as designed. Philip Bilden's nomination came from the well attuned voices in both the Naval War College Foundation and the United States Naval Institute, both of which have very influential naval insiders who know the man as someone actively engaged and interested in naval affairs, and willing to put his money where those interests are. In that context though, it was unlikely Philip Bilden's supporters saw any potential private financial conflicts of interest as ever being an issue that would prevent his appointmnet, so when credible people recommended him to the President, it isn't hard to see President Trump appreciating the recommendation of an outsider with big name endorsements who General Mattis was also endorsing.

The Navy undoubtedly needs more people like Philip Bilden in their corner, but that can't override how the government undoubtedly needs people who can get through the financial ethics requirements related to offshore investments, and that goes double for this administration. From everything I have seen and heard, Philip Bilden is a great American, but the government financial ethics requirements are not really flexible when it comes to people with global investments. This would be true for most of the wealthy stars super of Hollywood, like George Clooney or Angelina Jolie, who have extensive  foreign investments likely disqualifying them from ever being Secretary of State, for example, just as it is true for Philip Bilden. Bottom line, in American government you are considered far more qualified if you blow trillions of dollars of taxpayer money on government garbage than if you have effectively earned and invested your own wealth resulting in a portfolio showing foreign holdings. Amusing how that requirement for government service is both logical and remarkably pathetic.

I look forward to seeing who General Mattis recommends for the new Secretary of the Navy. While Randy Forbes would have to be the top safe pick on everyone's mind, I'm still hoping the President's team throws the 102 mph fastball right over the strike zone and picks from among the top folks in the next generation who didn't sign that War on the Rocks memo... folks like Mackenzie Eaglen, Jerry Hendrix, or Bryan Clark.

Friday, February 17, 2024

Question of the Week February 13 - February 17, 2024

Each week Information Dissemination will present a Question of the Week for professional consideration and discussion. The question will remain at the top of the blog from Monday at 12:00am until Friday 5:00pm. Please scroll down for new contributions. This weeks question:

CSBA's new report Restoring American Seapower: A New Fleet Architecture for the United States Navy calls for smaller conventionally powered CVLs of 40,000 to 60,000 tons that would provide power projection and sea control capabilities at the scale needed for day-to-day operations and for SUW, strike, and CAS as part of initial combat, freeing CVNs to focus on high-end integrated multi-carrier operations. How much money would be too much money for a 40,000 to 60,000 ton CVL? Why?

"The Trump Navy: Getting to 350 Ships" Event at Hudson Center for American Seapower 1 March




Former Navy Under Secretary The Honorable Dr.  Janine Davidson, and CSBA Senior Fellow Bryan Clark will join Hudson Center for American Seapower Director Seth Cropsey and me for a conversation about the Trump Navy midday on March 1.

Details can be found on the Hudson Center for American Seapower webpage.

The Biggest Issues Facing Our Navy And Military Strategy Across The Seas

I did an interview with The Federalist Radio Hour recently that may be of interest to readers.

Rep. Conaway Introduces the "12 Carrier Act"

Representative Michael K. Conaway (R--TX11) has introduced the "12 Carrier Act" in the House. The bill can be found here.

The best bit is here;

SEC. 4. INCREASE IN NUMBER OF OPERATIONAL AIRCRAFT CARRIERS OF THE NAVY.

(a) Increase.—Section 5062(b) of title 10, United States Code, is amended by striking “11 operational aircraft carriers” and inserting “12 operational aircraft carriers”.

(b) Effective Date.—The amendment made by subsection (a) shall take effect on September 30, 2023.

I am of course, very supportive of this measure. Both the Navy's recent Force Structure Assessment and the CSBA Fleet Architecture I assisted on call for 12 carriers.

Friday, February 10, 2024

Question of the Week February 6 - February 10, 2024

Each week Information Dissemination will present a Question of the Week for professional consideration and discussion. The question will remain at the top of the blog from Monday at 12:00am until Friday 5:00pm. Please scroll down for new contributions. This weeks question:

The Navy awarded Newport News Shipbuilding $25.5 million to begin advanced fabrication of of the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise CVN-80 this week. Should CVN-80, the third Ford-class aircraft carrier, be the last big deck aircraft carrier the US Navy builds?

Why? Why not?

Thursday, February 9, 2024

CSBA Fleet Architecture Talking Paper--Why the Current Force Structure Assessment Process is Flawed

During the work last summer on the CSBA Fleet Architecture Study, I would occasionally write short summaries of things we were thinking about for the team lead, Bryan Clark. The one below is a condnesed version of some thinking on why the way FSA's are done today is flawed.

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There is a fundamental weakness in the manner in which the Navy conducts fleet architecture and force structure inquiries. That weakness derives from the tension between the near-term nature of the “demand signal” as represented in the numbered war plans, the GFMAP, and security cooperation force requirements, and the far-term nature of the 30 year shipbuilding and aviation plans that are required of it by the Congress. These 30 year plans are a manifestation of the fleet architecture in place and planned, such as it is. Because the main inputs to it are 1) the near-term demand signal extrapolated forward into the future and 2) the perceived need to “replace” force structure that reaches the end of its service life, a classic “self-licking ice cream cone” situation is created. An explanation follows.

There is a force structure in place at any given time that reflects the extant fleet architecture. Combatant Commanders (COCOM) request forces (or sometimes capabilities) to service their requirements from the forces that are available. To the extent that there are either unavailable forces or capabilities to service these unmet needs, the COCOM generates need statements—urgent operational requirements or inputs to their integrated priority lists. Generally speaking, these needs are reflective of in-situ/near term needs. The Navy then—within its capability to do so—attempts to meet these needs with (again, generally speaking)—short term or nearly immediately available solutions.

Put another way, the COCOMs ask for what is available, and the Navy builds its fleet around what the COCOM’s ask for. What the COCOMs ask for is conditioned by a set of pre-existing expectations of what can and will be provided. Our fleet looks like it does because of an aggregated response over time to what is asked of it by the competing requirements of COCOMs obsessed (by design) with the near term.

In our approach to this assessment, we take as our main idea the conventional deterrence of great power war. We assess the current fleet architecture (to include its posture and basing) to be at best, sub-optimized to meet this mandate and at worst, a slow, methodical undercutting of such deterrence. This is due to the fact that our forces providing everyday peacetime presence are the same forces that would be relied upon for war-fighting—just a smaller subset thereof. The demands of great power warfighting create a requirement for a level of response that cannot be adequately prepared for given the needs of maintaining point-station deterrence day in and day out from among the same forces. This Alternate Fleet Architecture is based upon a radically altered “demand signal” that is closely aligned with the needs of a regionally aggregated approach to great power deterrence focused through the instrumentalities of a number of emerging naval operational concepts.

CSBA Alternative Fleet Architecture Study

In the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act, DoD was directed to conduct a group of studies on Alternative Fleet Architectures. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) was selected to perform one of the studies, and its fearless leader Bryan Clark asked me to pitch in.  The study has finally been released to the public, and it can be found here.

Tuesday, February 7, 2024

The Fleet in Being Strategy

PACIFIC OCEAN (Jan. 20, 2017) Aircraft from Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17 conduct flight operations aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71). The carrier is currently off the coast of Southern California conducting carrier qualifications. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Bill M. Sanders/Released)

The US Navy has dealt with the fiscal controls of sequestration put in place by Congress and the Obama Administration over the last few years by making a strategic choice that favored new shipbuilding activities over the maintenance of ships and aircraft - among other things. Budgets are zero sum, and Defense News is reporting the consequences of that strategic choice.
The U.S. Navy’s F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet strike fighters are the tip of the spear, embodying most of the fierce striking power of the aircraft carrier strike group. But nearly two-thirds of the fleet’s strike fighters can’t fly — grounded because they’re either undergoing maintenance or simply waiting for parts or their turn in line on the aviation depot backlog.

Overall, more than half the Navy’s aircraft are grounded, most because there isn’t enough money to fix them.

Additionally, there isn’t enough money to fix the fleet’s ships, and the backlog of ships needing work continues to grow. Overhauls — “availabilities” in Navy parlance — are being canceled or deferred, and when ships do come in they need longer to refit. Every carrier overall for at least three years has run long, and some submarines are out of service for prolonged periods, as much as four years or more. One submarine, the Boise, has lost its diving certification and can’t operate pending shipyard work.

Leaders claim that if more money doesn’t become available, five more submarines will be in the same state by the end of this year. 
The article has plenty of details, but the eye popping quote comes after the article cites "$6-8 billion" in immediate needs. There is only one way to describe what this means.
The dire situation of naval aviation is sobering. According to the Navy, 53 percent of all Navy aircraft can’t fly — about 1,700 combat aircraft, patrol, and transport planes and helicopters. Not all are due to budget problems — at any given time, about one-fourth to one-third of aircraft are out of service for regular maintenance. But the 53 percent figure represents about twice the historic norm.
It doesn't matter how many ships are in the US Navy's shipbuilding plan, the unequivocal truth of the situation is - the US Navy today is a hollow force. When the fleet cannot leave port and has been degraded to the point it cannot maintain it's own resources, it is a fleet in being. It was an intentional choice, by both Navy leaders and Congress - they all own the situation as it is today. This has been the strategy of the last several years to insure new construction and new ships. No one, whether a civilian in either political party or an Admiral in the Navy today, can claim they are not accountable. Priorities get funded, and a lot of priorities that have nothing to do with the maintenance of naval power have been funded over the last many years.

Consider for a moment that it is very likely the training squadrons are probably among the squadrons actually getting maintenance funding, which means it is very likely the US Navy couldn't field more than 4, and probably not even 5 aircraft carriers with functioning combat aircraft today in response to a national emergency. I don't know what percent of the F-18s force is grounded, but I bet the percentage of helicopters grounded is much higher, because if there is one thing we can make a safe bet on - it is that naval aviation leaders will have prioritized the F-18s and done only the minimum everywhere else.

Last week the Question of the Week asked whether the US Navy was prepared for combat at sea. My answer to this question would be, "Yes the US Navy is prepared to fight, at least initially, and while the tip of the spear is very sharp - it's the shortest spear the US Navy has represented since the 19th century."

In 2010 I remember listening to fleet leaders who were very concerned that the US Navy was on the verge of being a hollow force, and today in 2017 the US Navy is absolutely hollow. There are entire squadrons of aircraft that cannot fly today, and ships that not only can't get underway - but it is unclear when they next could get underway. When I read articles discussing the size of the US Navy in 2017 I roll my eyes wondering if they have any idea how meaningless the numbers they use actually are. Numbers on paper have nothing in common with reality. The CNO telling any and all who will listen that the state of maintenance in the force has already passed critical levels - that's the reality.

Friday, February 3, 2024

Question of the Week January 30 - February 3, 2024

Each week Information Dissemination will present a Question of the Week for professional consideration and discussion. The question will remain at the top of the blog from Monday at 12:00am until Friday 5:00pm. Please scroll down for new contributions. This weeks question:

Is the US Navy prepared for combat at sea? Why or why not?


Q and A: On Technology and the Defense Acquisition System (Segment 10)



Friday, January 27, 2024

Question of the Week January 23-27, 2017

Each week Information Dissemination will present a Question of the Week for professional consideration and discussion. The question will remain at the top of the blog from Monday at 12:00am until Friday 5:00pm. Please scroll down for new contributions. This weeks question:

Does a world of Great Power friction require a different fleet architecture than a uni-polar world?

The question asks why, not how.

What Are You So Worried About? (Segment 5)



Thursday, January 26, 2024

Phillip Bilden Nominated as Secretary of the Navy

From the White House press release.
President Donald J. Trump today announced his intention to nominate Philip Bilden as the 76th Secretary of the Navy.

Mr. Bilden, a highly successful business leader, former Military Intelligence officer, and Naval War College cybersecurity leader will bring strategic leadership, investment discipline, and Asia Pacific regional and cyber expertise to the Department of the Navy.

Bilden has longstanding trusted relationships with senior military leaders, particularly in the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, through his years of national security engagement, including service on the Board of Directors of the United States Naval Academy Foundation and the Board of Trustees of the Naval War College Foundation. Mr. Bilden understands the strategic, operational, and readiness challenges our Navy and Marine Corps leaders confront in maintaining our naval maritime presence around the globe.

Bilden is deeply committed to military service members and their families, coming from a military family with four consecutive generations of seven Bilden Navy and Army officers, including his two sons who presently serve in the US Navy. He greatly respects the sacrifices that Navy and Marine Corps families make to serve their country.

Mr. Bilden served ten years in the U.S. Army Reserve as a Military Intelligence officer from 1986-1996. He was commissioned as a Second Lieutenant and served through the rank of Captain at Strategic Military Intelligence Detachments supporting the Defense Intelligence Agency. He resigned his commission in 1996 upon relocating to Hong Kong.

“As Secretary of the Navy, Philip Bilden will apply his terrific judgement and top-notch management skills to the task of rebuilding our unparalleled Navy,” said President Trump. “Our number of ships is at the lowest point that it has been in decades. Philip Bilden is the right choice to help us expand and modernize our fleet, including surface ships, submarines and aircraft, and ensure America’s naval supremacy for decades to come. I am proud of the men and women of our armed forces. The people who serve in our military are our American heroes, and we honor their service every day.”

“I am deeply humbled and honored to serve as Secretary of the Navy,” said Philip Bilden. “Maintaining the strength, readiness, and capabilities of our maritime force is critical to our national security. If confirmed, I will ensure that our Sailors and Marines have the resources they need to defend our interests around the globe and support our allies with commitment and capability.”

Mr. Bilden has three decades of international management, leadership, and investment experience building an investment management business across global markets with diverse international partners. After 25 years, Mr. Bilden recently retired as a co-founding member and Senior Advisor of HarbourVest Partners, LLC, a leading global private equity investment management firm with institutional assets under management currently in excess of $42 billion. He became a founding member of the firm following the management buyout of HarbourVest’s predecessor company in 1997. Mr. Bilden joined the firm in Boston in 1991 and relocated to Hong Kong in 1996 to establish the firm’s Asian presence as a pioneering investor in the region. Throughout his 25 year tenure at HarbourVest Partners, Mr. Bilden served in senior leadership roles in the firm’s global management, including the firm’s four person Executive Committee responsible for governance.

Mr. Bilden serves on numerous philanthropic boards of non-profit organizations supporting military veterans, national and regional security, and cybersecurity missions. He serves on the Board of Visitors of Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; the Asia Pacific Advisory Board and Dean’s Board of Advisors of Harvard Business School; the Board of Directors of the United States Naval Academy Foundation; and the Board of Trustees of the Naval War College Foundation, where he serves as the inaugural Chairman of the Center for Cyber Conflict Studies.

Mr. Bilden graduated as Distinguished Military Graduate, U.S. Army ROTC, from Georgetown University, earning the President’s Cup as the top graduate in the corps. He received a B.S. (magna cum laude) in Foreign Service from Georgetown University in 1986, with a concentration in International Politics and Soviet bloc studies. Mr. Bilden earned an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School in 1991.
President Trump's selection of Phillip Bilden can be described as the expected choice, as he was the only name specifically promoted by the Trump administration transition team for the position. While there was a public campaign for the selection of Randy Forbes for the position, that campaign primarily came from outside the transition team. Once General Mattis had endorsed Phillip Bilden, this was pretty much a done deal.

I think it is a good pick. There are a number of different opinions on how Presidents should pick the cabinet positions for the various military service Secretary's, and there has never been a single proven way to make such a selection. In the eyes of many who campaigned for Randy Forbes, a Randy Forbes selection would have been great for the Navy because it could build upon existing relationships in Congress and he has relevant experience as the House Seapower Subcommittee chairman that would have allowed Mr. Forbes to hit the ground running. In the end I saw that close relationship Randy Forbes has with top uniformed leadership in the Navy as the reason he wasn't selected.

I like and respect Randy Forbes a lot, but I never believed Randy Forbes was going to get the nomination. Had any other Republican President among the list of candidates who ran for President in 2016 been elected, then Randy Forbes would have almost certainly been nominated, and I believe the Undersecretary of the Navy position would have led to a nomination of someone like Bryan McGrath or Jerry Hendrix. With that said, I also don't believe any other Republican President but Trump would have selected General Mattis for Secretary of Defense, which is to note that each administration looks at these top positions in National Defense differently. With the exception of General Flynn, I believe President Trump has done a decent job filling out his National Security cabinet, but people will ultimately be judged by what they do once installed into office, not what their reputation says going in.

The selection of Philip Bilden does bring an outsider into the Navy. Phillip Bilden has been successful in his career, and to me being good at what you do professionally is very important, regardless of the profession. For me, success is also defined by what one does outside of their career, and for Philip Bilden that includes having two children choose and get accepted into the US Naval Academy. Both the choosing and the being accepted aspect of that detail says something about Philip Bilden that I respect. Another part of Mr. Bilden's success is financial, and what exactly is the relevant criticism of a private citizen who donates time and money to support the US Naval Academy, US Naval War College Foundation, and the United States Naval Institute? As a private citizen I have supported all three organizations, and would do so with more monetary resources if I had the means to do so.

For me, I like the signaling of nominating Philip Bilden as Secretary of the Navy on multiple levels. First, I believe it is good for the Navy to have an outside voice advocating for the Navy from the Secretary position. In the end Ray Mabus may have departed the Secretary of the Navy position unpopular for several of his choices, but as Secretary of the Navy his record is that of the Secretary of the Navy who got Congress to fund the second most naval vessels of any Secretary of the Navy since World War II, and unlike John Lehman who remains in first place, Mr. Mabus was able to do that during a time where the relative budget growth for the Navy was either static, or in decline. I tend to believe outsiders tend to prioritize some things better than insiders, and prioritizing shipbuilding was one of those things Ray Mabus did effectively.

Phillip Bilden has the opportunity to do the same thing, particularly with the charge by the Trump administration to grow the size of the US Navy. Until the Budget Control Act is dealt with, that's going to be very difficult to do. Mr. Bilden also has to address the consequences of choices made by his predecessor, specifically how Ray Mabus chose to build ships at the cost of maintenance and upkeep for existing ships and aircraft - particularly but not limited to less popular priorities like the helicopter squadrons. Mr. Bilden must address the broad scope of problems that are a direct result from maintenance shortages for existing ships and equipment over a period of many years, and doing that while also growing the fleet is going to be a significant challenge, and potentially impossible without additional funding from Congress.

Second, another signal I really like here is that it suggests President Trump intends to at least attempt to keep Sean Stackley on as Undersecretary of the Navy. I may be misreading this, but I certainly hope not. A major distinction between the Navy's poor return on investments during the Bush administration compared to the better rate of return on investment during the Obama administration was the presence of a strong Undersecretary of the Navy with a clear understanding of how to work inside the Department. While there was never a strong Undersecretary of the Navy during the Bush administration, there were two very capable Undersecretary's during the Obama administration - Bob Work and Dr. Janine Davidson.

Those are enormous shoes to fill, and if we remove all the names from the National Security letter against President Trump during the campaign as potential Undersecretary of the Navy choices, and we remove Jerry Hendrix because I highly doubt the President will seek another exemption from Congress for a recently retired military officer,*** the only logical choice I see representing someone who can fill the shoes of the last two Undersecretary's of the Navy with a clear understanding of the challenges that lie ahead for the Trump Administration's Navy growth policy is Sean Stackley. In my mind selecting Sean Stackley for the Undersecretary of the Navy is probably the smartest way for the Trump administration to put themselves in a position for success with Phillip Bilden as Secretary and with the stated National Security Policy intent to grow the US Navy.

With that said, I have no idea if Sean Stackley would take the job, I just think it's important that he does take the job given the position and direction of the Navy right now going forward.

Finally, the other signal being sent by the selection of Phillip Bilden is that the Trump administration doesn't appear to have a high degree of confidence in the US Navy to execute the administrations priorities successfully. I think this is related to events as they unfolded immediately following the election of Donald Trump as President. There were two things that became unquestionably obvious, at least from a public perspective, and fueled the gossip coming from the Navy immediately following the election results.

Navy uniformed leadership was shocked Donald Trump won the election. To be honest, so was I and whether you admit it or not - many of you were too. Being shocked by the 2016 Presidential election outcome is hardly something unique.

But, Navy uniformed leadership was also completely unprepared for the possibility of Donald Trump winning the election, and that was the narrative that kept going well into December following the election results, and that is a narrative that isn't easily forgotten. When there are only two possible known outcomes of an election, uniformed leadership of any military service is not allowed to be unprepared for either known outcome, ever. There is one truth about military officers in the United States; the only skill every single military officer over the grade of O-5 can always put on their resume is 'contingency planning expertise.' Contingency planning is what the US military does, all day, every day, whether awake or asleep. US military officers are judged by that standard, and often the standard of quality for a military officer is based on how many contingencies for unknown outcomes they have prepared for. Known contingencies? That's the bare minimum, and yet, somehow, the Navy made the impression publicly, and more importantly - to the Trump administration transition team, virtually every reporter that covers the Navy, and every think tank that follows naval affairs in Washington DC that the Navy was completely unprepared for Donald Trump winning the election with no budget work of value planned for that possibility.

Now, while that was a serious problem, I have no doubt that the CNO and Sean Stackley will leave no evidence that this was ever an issue by the time the budget season arrives, but the seed of doubt was planted. As soon as it became obvious the US Navy had done virtually no FY18 budget planning of consequence in preparation for the possibility of Trump winning the election, I was fairly certain President Trump was going to select someone from outside the known Navy community to be Secretary of the Navy. Randy Forbes was the chairman of the House Seapower Subcommittee, so please don't try to suggest he is an outsider. Under the circumstances as they unfolded after the election, one would expect any smart executive to look for a fresh voice capable of taking an independent, objective view, so that person could get in there and figure out what the administration is dealing with before the administration can effectively move forward.

This isn't a knock against Randy Forbes, but because of his existing relationships with the uniformed Navy leaders at the top, I wouldn't have picked Randy Forbes to get in there and be objective about the situation either. When Flag officers appear completely unprepared for a known contingency - it is so unexpected that it is very hard to ignore. While I see the lack of preparation by the Navy for Trump being elected as a mistake that can be corrected, in my mind one of the top priorities for Phillip Bilden once confirmed is to find out if the mistake is a reflection of a bigger problem, or if the mistake was the wake-up call Navy leaders needed to do some self reflection and get to work.

Answering that question determines where the Navy is today, and what is actually possible for the Trump administration going forward with the people in place.

*** This article originally discussed retired Captain Jerry Hendrix as needing a waiver from Congress if retired for less than five years in order to accept an appointment. This is inaccurate, only retired Flag officers and General officers require Congressional waivers.

Reforming the Department of the Navy


This post originally appeared one year ago today, and it was posted then in no small measure to be timed to the arrival in office of the new Under Secretary of the Navy, Dr. Janine Davidson.  Janine is someone I admire quite a bit, and she and I discussed these reforms in detail as she prepared to take office. A new Secretary of the Navy nominee was announced yesterday, and Mr. Bilden and his team will have a significant opportunity to move forward on necessary reforms. This is reposted to provide that team with a few things to consider. 

Introduction
This post is a summary of ideas that have been germinating in my mind for a while. I have been arguing for a powerful vision of American Seapower for some time now, and closer Navy/Marine Corps integration has consistently been at the heart of it. I have come to conclude that the benefits of what I argue are worth pursuing, but that achieving them is unlikely as long as the two Services are not invested in a common understanding of American Seapower and led by an organization dedicated to discerning one.

In the Navy, I enjoyed four tours in Washington. Admittedly, none of them were on the Navy Secretariat, and so I do not write from a position of great authority on its inner workings. My observations are those of an interested observer who has worked around and in the vicinity of this staff. I welcome factual refutations of my opinions and observations.

Theory of the Case:
America plays a critical and leading role in the world
It is in America’s interest to continue to execute this role.
America has interests that are thousands of miles from its own territory.
America’s sovereign territory is relatively safe from military threat.
The rise of China and a resurgent and belligerent Russia present a new era of Great Power competition.
America is likely to encounter China and Russia as an adversary in areas contiguous to the world’s oceans, as this is where the majority of the world’s population lives.
The Department of the Navy has within it two Armed Services that specialize in operating from the sea.
These Armed Services provide the world’s most powerful naval force, the world’s most feared middleweight land force, and the world’s most mobile and lethal air force.
These forces—if properly resourced—are capable of servicing the majority of U.S. presence, conventional deterrence, assurance, and crisis response requirements.
In order to do so, these expeditionary capabilities must be more closely integrated into a cohesive and integral maritime fighting force, a new vision of American Seapower.
In order to achieve a new vision of American Seapower, a closer alignment of all aspects of organizing, training, and equipping the Navy and Marine Corps must be considered. Planning, programming, and budgeting must also be included. Redundancy, overlap, and conflict must be minimized.
The Department of the Navy Secretariat, under the Secretary of the Navy, is the organization that must bring about this closer integration and alignment.
Process and administrative changes in the Secretariat and throughout the two Services will be required.

Explanation
America’s role in the world and its favorable geography create the conditions under which Seapower can and should play a central and distinct role in its security and prosperity. By combining the capabilities of the world’s most powerful Navy, the world’s most feared middleweight land force, and the world’s most mobile and lethal air force, the Department of the Navy plays a leading role in all of the missions of the Department of Defense:
Counter terrorism and irregular warfare
Deter and defeat aggression
Project power despite anti-access/area denial challenges
Counter weapons of mass destruction
Operate effectively in cyberspace and space
Maintain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent
Defend the homeland and provide support to civil authorities
Provide a stabilizing presence
Conduct stability and counterinsurgency operations
Conduct humanitarian, disaster relief, and other operations.

This is not to say that the Department of the Navy performs ALL of all of these missions. Its role varies from mission to mission. What should not be disputed however, is the fact that the primary operational formations derived of the forces organized, trained, and equipped within the Department perform these missions as a matter of routine on a global basis. The very nature of American Seapower offers the nation the ability to field and operate forces that can protect and sustain American interests thousands of miles from its own shores, at the point of impact where the overwhelming majority of the world population lives. And while the Seapower resident in the Department of the Navy cannot perform all of the missions above in their totality all of the time, it can perform them to a greater degree than any other aspect of American military power most of the time in most places most efficiently.

In not recognizing the unique and foundational contributions of American Seapower to the nation’s defense, duplication, and waste are promoted as precious resources are inefficiently allocated, rendering the nation somewhat less capable of defending its interests for a given investment.
It is therefore essential that the an integral and coherent vision of American Seapower be formulated and espoused, one that presents the case that the nation can and should lean more heavily on the Department of the Navy for its peacetime crisis response and security requirements, while the forces of the other military departments prioritize preparation for the conduct and winning of largescale conflict.

Such a vision is however, insufficient, as the current organization of the Department of the Navy and its subordinate Armed Services (the Navy and the Marine Corps) does not adequately support the integration of capabilities that would be required in order to bring it about. Simply put, a coherent vision of American Seapower at the operational level demands a greater degree of integration at the very top, in efforts including planning, programming, budgeting, organizing, training, and equipping. By thinking more expansively about the utility of American Seapower and how it can best serve the needs of the Republic, pressures arise on the Navy and Marine Corps to work more closely together bureaucratically and organizationally in order to bring about the operational results desired.
Such integration is unlikely to occur from the bottom up. Service cultures and comfortable roles and missions create a situation in which the promise of American Seapower is unlikely to be achieved if the Navy and Marine Corps are left to themselves to bring it about. A forcing function is required.

Therefore, a reorganization of the Department of the Navy, undertaken with support of the President, the Secretary of Defense, and appropriate Congressional Committees is necessary to take positive steps designed to ensure that within the Department of the Navy, a greater level of Service integration is achieved, while also working to obtain the resources necessary to field the capabilities and capacities necessary to more effectively service the nation’s peacetime security and presence needs. It is not enough to say that we need a larger Navy and or Marine Corps. We must ensure that the American people understand what will be done with such an increase, why it is in the nation’s interest to do so, and how doing so will make a given level of defense spending go further.

Pathologies

Strategic Thinking
There is no organization within the Department of the Navy dedicated to thinking about integrated American Seapower.
Both the Chief of Naval Operations and the Commandant of the Marine Corps maintain three star directorates with “strategy” within their mandate, in addition to small, highly influential strategic cells that report directly to the Service Chief. In none of these organizations is there a meaningful representation of officers from the other Service.
The Department of the Navy Secretariat has no such organization.
The lack of such an organization has not however, resulted in no strategic thinking in the Department. Quite the contrary, two maritime strategies have been produced in the past ten years (2007, 2015). These were however, ad hoc efforts that do not appear to have influenced fleet operations or force structure, and in at least the 2007 instance, was undertaken around and without the inclusion of the Service Secretary.

Strategic Communications
Under the Secretary of the Navy, there is a Chief of Information (CHINFO) and a Chief of Legislative Affairs (OLA). These officers report directly to the Secretary, with dotted line reporting responsibility to the Chief of Naval Operations. Neither organization is responsible for Marine Corps affairs, as the Commandant of the Marine Corps has his own legislative assistant and his own public affairs assistant.
In essence, the organizations charged with Department of the Navy strategic communications represent only one Service (the Navy), and to the extent that the other Service—the Marine Corps—requires these functions, they are creatures of the office of the Commandant, not the Secretary of the Navy.
In essence, any strategic communications efforts are derived of three disjointed and unaligned efforts—Department of the Navy, U.S. Navy, and U.S. Marine Corps.
Additionally, no one person in the Department of the Navy is charged with the creation and implementation of a coherent strategic communications plan including legislative affairs, public affairs, and international messaging. Put another way, even if there were a coherent strategic narrative promoting the benefits of American Seapower, there is no process, organization, task force, or group responsible for carrying it out.

Planning and Programming
The Navy and Marine Corps do not receive adequate planning and programming guidance from the Secretary of the Navy at the beginning of the annual budget cycle, guidance designed to achieve a coherent vision of American Seapower. Secretary priority items are included in current guidance, but the degree to which the Services respond to a coherent and integrated vision of Seapower is minimal at best. There is little evidence that the Services are instructed what to devalue or cut.
The Navy and Marine Corps maintain separate planning and programming functions designed to create inputs (known as a “program objective memorandum” or POM) to the annual defense budget. There is little or no coordination between the Services during the development of Service POM’s, and there is limited interaction between the Services and the Navy Secretariat.
The Navy Secretariat does not have an organization staffed to issue such guidance, monitor its implementation, and remedy shortfalls. To the extent that any changes are made to the Service POM’s, they come late in the process and are generally made within individual Service POMs.

Acquisition
Meaningful reform to the acquisition system is essential to achieving alignment within the Department of the Navy, as a vision of American Seapower would create derived requirements and the opportunity for capability trades between and among USN and USMC acquisition efforts.
This currently happens to some degree within the office of the Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development, and Acquisition. This work is however, undermined by the disjointed strategic communications efforts described above.
Captain Mark Vandroff, USN and I laid out a proposal for reforming Department of the Navy acquisition elsewhere, and rather than repeat it here, readers are urged to review it. Though not mentioned in that article, the need for an integrated strategic communications/legislative relations effort is essential to achieving some of the benefits of the recommended reforms.

Recommendations
Revive the Office of Program Appraisal (OPA) on the Navy Secretariat at the two-star level. A staff made up of USN/USMC and civilian experts in strategic thinking and budgeting. Headed by a two-star with a one-star deputy who fleets up. Alternates between Navy and USMC. Billets would come from USN (N3/N5, N8) and USMC (P,P,&O/P&R). This organization would have the dual mission of aligning the American Seapower strategic narrative and providing oversight of Service POM development in order to achieve it.
Empower the Under Secretary of the Navy to manage Navy Department Strategic Communications.  VCNO, ACMC, CHINFO, OLA, N3/N5, and PP@O would all serve on a DON strategic communications Board of Directors. Public, legislative, and international messaging would be aligned within this BOD.
o Both CHINFO and OLA would become truly Departmental organizations. The Commandant would lose the Assistant for Legislative Matters and the Assistant for Public Affairs. The two-star heads of these organizations would have a one-star deputy who fleets up. The heads of these organizations would be filled by officers from the two services, with no more than 90 days at a time in which officers from one of the Services are in both positions.
Empower the Secretary of the Navy as the single responsible party for Departmental capability definition and its acquisition, subject to overrule only by the President or the Secretary of Defense (within the Executive Department). This is described more fully in the previously linked to USNI News piece.

Conclusion

The promise of powerful, integrated American Seapower tending to the nation’s peacetime presence and crisis response missions while it creates the conditions for garrison forces to fall in on for warfighting, will not occur organically. There are powerful interests aligned against it, and as this article may reveal, potentially good arguments against it.

I look forward to those arguments being made, and to those arguments in agreement with the central proposition of this proposal but with doubts about the offered solutions.

In the end, this nation’s geography, interests, and role in the world demand more of its naval services.  Seapower advocates must not shy away from the benefits conferred to this nation by a powerful naval force, even if it means relative comparisons with other elements of military power.

Why Does the Navy Have to Be So Big? (Segment 4)